Clips matched to Tyler Shough from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | 2023 | 0.596 | 18.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 35 | 10 | 2404 | 1803 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.514 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 14 | 3815 | 2660 |
| David Garrard | QB | 2013 | 0.593 | 18.4 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 1308 | 1035 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | 2021 | 0.527 | 16.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 13 | 2422 | 1782 |
| Jay Cutler | QB | 2017 | 0.527 | 16.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 11 | 2305 | 1811 |
| Jeff Garcia | QB | 2011 | 0.525 | 22.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 38 | 9 | 2232 | 1766 |
| Donovan McNabb | QB | 2011 | 0.460 | 24.5 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 12 | 3154 | 2430 |
| Colt McCoy | QB | 2022 | 0.598 | 13.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 36 | 5 | 449 | 328 |
| Mike Glennon | QB | 2022 | 0.605 | 13.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 399 | 215 |
| Nick Foles | QB | 2022 | 0.525 | 18.1 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 7 | 836 | 671 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 296.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.526
Comp pool washed-out rate: 45% (9/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 995 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,029. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,424 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,351 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.685 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.344 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(926 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 926 × 0.344) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.862 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 11 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 296 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.