Clips matched to Sam Howell from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | QB | 2008 | 0.909 | 17.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 9 | 1335 | 985 |
| Tommy Kramer ⏳ 1979 | QB | 1990 | 0.841 | 17.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 1586 | 1167 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.825 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 18 | 5277 | 3358 |
| Eric Hipple ⏳ 1981 washed out | QB | 1989 | 0.821 | 13.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 754 | 496 |
| Rick Mirer ⏳ 1993 | QB | 2004 | 0.821 | 12.9 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 6 | 884 | 591 |
| Randall Cunningham ⏳ 1986 | QB | 2001 | 0.815 | 25.5 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 12 | 3026 | 2323 |
| Jim Hart ⏳ 1967 | QB | 1984 | 0.800 | 13.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 14 | 2200 | 1443 |
| Jim Zorn ⏳ 1976 | QB | 1987 | 0.781 | 17.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 8 | 1598 | 1220 |
| EJ Manuel washed out | QB | 2017 | 0.778 | 14.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 265 | 110 |
| Brett Favre ⏳ 1992 | QB | 2010 | 0.774 | 23.0 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 18 | 5135 | 3415 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 303.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.767
Comp pool washed-out rate: 30% (6/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,238 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,365. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 2,041 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 953 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,517 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.710 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.531 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,077 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,077 × 0.531) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.950 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 303 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.