Clips matched to Puka Nacua from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | WR | 2023 | 0.527 | 19.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 9 | 2449 | 1470 |
| Michael Thomas washed out | WR | 2023 | 0.510 | 18.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 1275 | 501 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.483 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 12 | 3461 | 1832 |
| A.J. Green | WR | 2022 | 0.468 | 16.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 2002 | 1107 |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | 2016 | 0.457 | 15.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 11 | 2557 | 1588 |
| Jerry Rice ⏳ 1987 | WR | 2004 | 0.447 | 17.1 | 19 seasons · ended age 42 | 16 | 3719 | 2274 |
| Dez Bryant | WR | 2020 | 0.443 | 16.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1544 | 669 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.441 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 9 | 2399 | 1385 |
| Percy Harvin washed out | WR | 2016 | 0.432 | 14.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 896 | 162 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | 2020 | 0.428 | 15.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 5 | 1300 | 562 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,685.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.433
Comp pool washed-out rate: 10% (2/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,048 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,115. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 2,466 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,096 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,898 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.979 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,859 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,859 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.906 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 6 of 17 games in 2026 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=0.98) |
| = Final production score | 1,685 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.