Clips matched to Mike Evans from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.765 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 2399 | 57 |
| Andre Johnson | WR | 2016 | 0.678 | 17.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 2484 | 296 |
| Julio Jones | WR | 2023 | 0.658 | 19.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 2449 | 105 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.650 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 5 | 3461 | 823 |
| Randy Moss | WR | 2012 | 0.639 | 16.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 2724 | 160 |
| Hines Ward | WR | 2011 | 0.577 | 13.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 2230 | 430 |
| Isaac Bruce | WR | 2009 | 0.572 | 13.1 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 5 | 2329 | 553 |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | 2022 | 0.564 | 12.9 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 3 | 1923 | 141 |
| Santana Moss | WR | 2014 | 0.541 | 12.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 1837 | 232 |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | 2016 | 0.537 | 13.3 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 1588 | 29 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 412.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.528
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 225 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 243. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 690 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,698 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 504 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(504 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 504 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.818 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 8 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 412 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.