Clips matched to Matthew Hibner from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerell Adams washed out | TE | 2020 | 0.993 | 2.5 | 2 seasons · ended age 25 | 1 | 48 | 16 |
| Richard Owens washed out | TE | 2007 | 0.982 | 1.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 27 | 3 | 35 | 21 |
| Daniel Graham | TE | 2012 | 0.981 | 7.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 9 | 594 | 481 |
| Blake Bell | TE | 2023 | 0.948 | 2.3 | 7 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 125 | 82 |
| Kory Sperry washed out | TE | 2013 | 0.947 | 1.5 | 2 seasons · ended age 26 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
| Matt Schobel washed out | TE | 2008 | 0.944 | 4.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 291 | 218 |
| Shawn Nelson washed out | TE | 2011 | 0.931 | 3.6 | 1 seasons · ended age 24 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi washed out | TE | 2023 | 0.768 | 1.6 | 2 seasons · ended age 25 | 1 | 14 | 2 |
| Courtney Anderson washed out | TE | 2007 | 0.875 | 6.0 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 170 | 135 |
| Alge Crumpler | TE | 2010 | 0.849 | 11.0 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 9 | 1025 | 814 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 161.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_comp_pool_floor
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.862
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 103 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 117. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 317 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 231 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.408 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.200 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(94 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 94 × 0.200) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 6 of 17 games in 2026 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 161 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.