Kaelon Black’s actual 2026 NFL production, and the historical NFL players whose own first 7 career games looked most like it — same position, same number of games. His line is the highlighted row, so each comp can be read directly against it. Career outcome and career fp say what became of that player.
| Player | Debut | First 7 career games | Similarity | Career outcome | Career fp | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaelon Black this rookie | 2026 | 57 car · 233 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 3 rec · 4 re yds | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Wells | 2009 | 57 car · 238 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 4 rec · 17 re yds | 0.909 | depth | 438 | 4 |
| Benny Snell | 2019 | 65 car · 279 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 3 rec · 23 re yds | 0.820 | depth | 165 | 4 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2019 | 55 car · 270 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 1 rec · 8 re yds | 0.815 | starter | 638 | 6 |
| Rob Kelley | 2016 | 60 car · 287 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 2 rec · -1 re yds | 0.811 | depth | 177 | 3 |
| KaRon Coleman | 2000 | 54 car · 183 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 1 rec · 5 re yds | 0.806 | bust | 36 | 3 |
| Peyton Barber | 2016 | 48 car · 198 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 5 rec · 28 re yds | 0.803 | depth | 492 | 6 |
| Cam Akers | 2020 | 59 car · 285 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 3 rec · 27 re yds | 0.792 | active | 389 | 6 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2014 | 66 car · 267 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 4 rec · 39 re yds | 0.786 | depth | 155 | 2 |
| Trey Sermon | 2021 | 43 car · 186 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 3 rec · 26 re yds | 0.785 | active | 104 | 5 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2015 | 42 car · 183 ru yds · 1 ru TD · 1 rec · 10 re yds | 0.781 | starter | 817 | 8 |
College production summary feeding the v3.0 similarity vector. The engine weights these features against the prospect corpus (2000–present) to build the comp grid below.
Historical college players whose production curves most closely match Kaelon Black. Hit-label colouring tags each comp's eventual NFL outcome: elite, starter, bust, unknown (still developing or never reached the NFL). Click an NFL name to jump to its veteran page when available.
| College player | School | Class | Similarity | NFL outcome | NFL career | Career fp | Peak3 fp/g | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler Benton | Cincinnati | 2008 | 0.805 | unknown | Butler Benton | — | — | — |
| Jordan Houston | Marshall | 2025 | 0.613 | unknown | Jordan Houston | — | — | — |
| J.D. King | Georgia Southern | 2021 | 0.603 | unknown | J.D. King | — | — | — |
| Jaden Nixon | UCF | 2026 | 0.603 | unknown | Jaden Nixon | — | — | — |
| Anderson Castle | Duke | 2026 | 0.595 | unknown | Anderson Castle | — | — | — |
| Adam Choice | Clemson | 2019 | 0.593 | unknown | Adam Choice | — | — | — |
| Jojo Kemp | Kentucky | 2017 | 0.583 | unknown | Jojo Kemp | — | — | — |
| Logan Wright | Georgia Southern | 2022 | 0.583 | unknown | Logan Wright | — | — | — |
| Marcus Outlow | Coastal Carolina | 2019 | 0.581 | unknown | Marcus Outlow | — | — | — |
| Kenny Hilliard | LSU | 2015 | 0.579 | unknown | Kenny Hilliard | — | — | — |
| Imani Cross | Nebraska | 2016 | 0.574 | unknown | Imani Cross | — | — | — |
| Roydell Williams | Florida State | 2025 | 0.574 | unknown | Roydell Williams | — | — | — |
| D'Ernest Johnson | South Florida | 2018 | 0.573 | bust | D'Ernest Johnson | 219 | 4.4 | 7 |
| D'Angelo Roberts | Indiana | 2015 | 0.571 | unknown | D'Angelo Roberts | — | — | — |
| Princeton McCarty | Idaho | 2012 | 0.566 | unknown | Princeton McCarty | — | — | — |
| Michel Dukes | Georgia State | 2025 | 0.561 | unknown | Michel Dukes | — | — | — |
| Garrett Groshek | Wisconsin | 2021 | 0.560 | unknown | Garrett Groshek | — | — | — |
| Bryce Williams | Minnesota | 2024 | 0.558 | unknown | Bryce Williams | — | — | — |
| Emari Demercado | TCU | 2023 | 0.555 | bust | Emari Demercado | 188 | 5.2 | 4 |
| Quinton Cooley | Liberty | 2025 | 0.553 | unknown | Quinton Cooley | — | — | — |
| Asher Clark | Air Force | 2012 | 0.553 | unknown | Asher Clark | — | — | — |
| Tony Jones | Colorado | 2015 | 0.553 | unknown | Tony Jones | 78 | 6.8 | 5 |
| Roddy Jones | Georgia Tech | 2012 | 0.552 | unknown | Roddy Jones | — | — | — |
| Kavosiey Smoke | Kentucky | 2023 | 0.550 | unknown | Kavosiey Smoke | — | — | — |
| Walter Kazee | San Diego State | 2013 | 0.550 | unknown | Walter Kazee | — | — | — |
Methodology details: v3.0 prospect engine — PR 3 similarity, PR 4 projection, PR 5 back-test.