Clips matched to Jake Tonges from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Donnell washed out | TE | 2016 | 0.749 | 8.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 256 | 87 |
| Milt Morin ⏳ 1968 | TE | 1975 | 0.739 | 7.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 670 | 420 |
| Benjamin Watson | TE | 2019 | 0.734 | 8.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 39 | 12 | 1392 | 898 |
| Tony Moeaki washed out | TE | 2015 | 0.690 | 6.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 248 | 40 |
| Henry Childs ⏳ 1977 washed out | TE | 1984 | 0.686 | 9.1 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 589 | 372 |
| Todd Christensen ⏳ 1982 | TE | 1988 | 0.666 | 13.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 1105 | 916 |
| Scott Chandler washed out | TE | 2015 | 0.660 | 8.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 566 | 424 |
| Jeff Cumberland washed out | TE | 2017 | 0.655 | 5.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 252 | 79 |
| Mark Chmura ⏳ 1995 washed out | TE | 1999 | 0.648 | 7.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 440 | 254 |
| Doug Cosbie ⏳ 1982 | TE | 1988 | 0.645 | 8.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 716 | 519 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 87.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.645
Comp pool washed-out rate: 65% (13/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 312 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 328. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 754 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 489 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 435 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.402 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.333 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(175 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 175 × 0.333) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.847 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 10 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 87 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.