Clips matched to Jake Ferguson from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener washed out | TE | 2017 | 0.870 | 9.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 682 | 290 |
| Owen Daniels | TE | 2015 | 0.858 | 11.3 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 1260 | 719 |
| Dustin Keller washed out | TE | 2013 | 0.848 | 10.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 635 | 246 |
| Jermaine Gresham | TE | 2018 | 0.822 | 9.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 915 | 202 |
| Freddie Jones | TE | 2004 | 0.814 | 8.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 833 | 332 |
| Brandon Pettigrew washed out | TE | 2016 | 0.808 | 11.0 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 706 | 257 |
| L.J. Smith washed out | TE | 2009 | 0.802 | 8.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 579 | 138 |
| Brent Celek | TE | 2017 | 0.793 | 11.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 1079 | 424 |
| Charles Clay | TE | 2019 | 0.791 | 10.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 868 | 304 |
| Chris Cooley | TE | 2012 | 0.779 | 11.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 1092 | 261 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 430.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.783
Comp pool washed-out rate: 30% (6/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 417 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 409. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 801 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 856 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 609 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.706 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(430 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 430 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 430 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.