Clips matched to Jacoby Brissett from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Kramer ⏳ 1998 | QB | 1999 | 0.689 | 16.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 35 | 1 | 998 | 29 |
| Chris Chandler | QB | 2004 | 0.668 | 16.6 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 4 | 1992 | 411 |
| Steve DeBerg ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1998 | 0.657 | 14.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 39 | 5 | 2076 | 630 |
| Billy Kilmer ⏳ 1973 | QB | 1978 | 0.652 | 13.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 4 | 1768 | 450 |
| Craig Morton ⏳ 1977 | QB | 1982 | 0.625 | 14.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 4 | 1829 | 595 |
| Neil O'Donnell | QB | 2003 | 0.567 | 14.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 35 | 1 | 1452 | 32 |
| Gus Frerotte | QB | 2008 | 0.565 | 14.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 37 | 2 | 1293 | 163 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | 2021 | 0.562 | 16.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 4 | 2422 | 553 |
| Jim Plunkett ⏳ 1981 | QB | 1986 | 0.557 | 14.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 39 | 4 | 1812 | 520 |
| Carson Palmer | QB | 2017 | 0.540 | 16.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 4 | 2770 | 636 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 290.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.550
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 349 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 370. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 644 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,158 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 443 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(443 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 443 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.818 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 8 of 17 games in 2026 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 290 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.