Clips matched to Israel Abanikanda from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.943 | 10.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 25 | 4 | 470 | 431 |
| Anthony McFarland washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.843 | 2.1 | 1 seasons · ended age 21 | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| Darrin Reaves washed out | RB | 2016 | 0.985 | 3.1 | 1 seasons · ended age 21 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
| Musa Smith washed out | RB | 2007 | 0.953 | 5.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 25 | 3 | 155 | 130 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | RB | 2015 | 0.937 | 14.9 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 7 | 1064 | 896 |
| Snoop Conner washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.738 | 2.0 | 1 seasons · ended age 22 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson washed out | RB | 2022 | 0.770 | 7.0 | 2 seasons · ended age 23 | 1 | 65 | 35 |
| Larry Rountree III washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.720 | 1.7 | 1 seasons · ended age 22 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall washed out | RB | 2013 | 0.872 | 13.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 26 | 5 | 822 | 750 |
| Ronnie Hillman washed out | RB | 2016 | 0.869 | 9.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 25 | 4 | 391 | 314 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 230.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_comp_pool_floor
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.810
Comp pool washed-out rate: 90% (18/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 212 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 322. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 314 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 273 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.486 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.200 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(133 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 133 × 0.200) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 230 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.