Next Level Dynasty Football

Fantasy Football · Updated November 07, 2026 at 04:46 PM UTC · Default format: Superflex PPR

Carnell Tate

WR · Ohio State · Class of 2026 · Model rank #19 (pos #3)
1041
Projected career fp
9.1
Projected peak3 fp/g
5.3
Proj yrs in league
21.0
Age
14
Comps w/ NFL data
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NFL comparables — first 7 career games

N = 7 games7 games is a very small sample. This shows how these players began, not how they will finish. It is a comparison, not a projection, and it should not be read as a settled view of anyone’s career. Drawn from 982 historical WRs who played at least 7 career games. A “game” is one in which the player recorded a stat line. Inactive weeks do not count, and the same rule is applied to the rookie and to every historical player he is compared against.

Carnell Tate’s actual 2026 NFL production, and the historical NFL players whose own first 7 career games looked most like it — same position, same number of games. His line is the highlighted row, so each comp can be read directly against it. Career outcome and career fp say what became of that player.

Player Debut First 7 career games Similarity Career outcome Career fp Seasons
Carnell Tate this rookie202651 tgt · 34 rec · 413 yds · 1 TD————
DeVonta Smith202153 tgt · 32 rec · 406 yds · 1 TD0.891active1,1386
Michael Crabtree200956 tgt · 32 rec · 406 yds · 1 TD0.846elite1,71111
Allen Robinson201453 tgt · 34 rec · 371 yds · 1 TD0.834elite1,52811
Zay Flowers202354 tgt · 39 rec · 442 yds · 1 TD0.773active7854
Josh Downs202347 tgt · 33 rec · 401 yds · 2 TD0.727active5494
Deion Branch200255 tgt · 37 rec · 408 yds · 2 TD0.712starter1,41811
Tetairoa McMillan202553 tgt · 30 rec · 413 yds · 2 TD0.706active3222
Willie Snead201545 tgt · 29 rec · 461 yds · 1 TD0.702starter7218
Preston Williams201951 tgt · 27 rec · 356 yds · 1 TD0.702depth1753
Dede Westbrook201751 tgt · 27 rec · 339 yds · 1 TD0.682depth4135
Pre-season college projection and college comps secondary
Superseded by the NFL comparison above. This is the pre-season estimate, built before Carnell Tate played a down: his college production comped against historical college players, anchored on draft capital. It is a weaker estimator (prospect back-test ρ 0.27 ex-TE) and it knows nothing about what he has actually done in the NFL. Kept for reference only.
🏈 NFL Draft 2026: Round 1, Pick #4 — TEN
KTC consensus. SF rank 35 (pos #11) — model delta ↑ +16. Positive delta = model bullish vs consensus; negative = bearish.
v3.6 projection methodology. Projection is a confidence-blend (“blend_0.42_pick_tier_baseline_R1_top10”). With 5 meaningful comp NFL careers (≥200 career fp), confidence is 0.42; we blend the comp-only projection (119) with the pick-tier baseline (1,700).

Projection inputs

College production summary feeding the v3.0 similarity vector. The engine weights these features against the prospect corpus (2000–present) to build the comp grid below.

College adj career fp/g: 10.53Final season fp/g: 15.35Peak season fp/g: 15.35Conf tier (last): P5

Top-25 college comparables

Historical college players whose production curves most closely match Carnell Tate. Hit-label colouring tags each comp's eventual NFL outcome: elite, starter, bust, unknown (still developing or never reached the NFL). Click an NFL name to jump to its veteran page when available.

College player School Class Similarity NFL outcome NFL career Career fp Peak3 fp/g Seasons
Brandon RideauKansas20050.915unknownBrandon Rideau00.01
Zach ErtzStanford20130.829unknownZach Ertz———
Ricardo LouisAuburn20160.823unknownRicardo Louis1013.62
Patrick TurnerUSC20090.770bustPatrick Turner281.24
Sonny ShackelfordWashington20070.759unknownSonny Shackelford———
Justin BrownOklahoma20130.757unknownJustin Brown193.21
Roscoe ParrishMiami (FL)20050.736unknownRoscoe Parrish3557.18
Reggie BrownGeorgia20050.717unknownReggie Brown55210.35
Keshawn MartinMichigan State20120.707bustKeshawn Martin1724.35
Josh MaloneTennessee20170.698bustJosh Malone281.73
Devery HendersonLSU20040.697unknownDevery Henderson82110.88
Bug HowardNorth Carolina20170.692unknownBug Howard———
Thomas DuarteUCLA20160.678unknownThomas Duarte———
Devin FunchessMichigan20150.674unknownDevin Funchess5169.25
Manuel JohnsonOklahoma20090.672unknownManuel Johnson20.81
James QuickLouisville20170.659unknownJames Quick———
Neil Pau'uBYU20220.652unknownNeil Pau'u———
David DouglasArizona20120.649unknownDavid Douglas———
Gary BarnidgeLouisville20080.649unknownGary Barnidge———
Duce RobinsonFlorida State20260.644unknownDuce Robinson———
Peyton HillisArkansas20080.636unknownPeyton Hillis———
Marcus DavisVirginia Tech20130.627unknownMarcus Davis———
Troy WilliamsonSouth Carolina20050.617bustTroy Williamson2285.95
Josh CooperOklahoma State20120.615unknownJosh Cooper345.32
Craig DavisLSU20070.613unknownCraig Davis1207.94

Methodology details: v3.0 prospect engine — PR 3 similarity, PR 4 projection, PR 5 back-test.