Clips matched to Baker Mayfield from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | QB | 2005 | 0.782 | 18.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1814 | 150 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.765 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 7 | 3815 | 1535 |
| Jake Plummer | QB | 2006 | 0.748 | 17.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 2163 | 355 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.715 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 8 | 4082 | 1703 |
| Otto Graham ⏳ 1954 | QB | 1955 | 0.711 | 18.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 2153 | 206 |
| Joe Montana ⏳ 1986 | QB | 1994 | 0.703 | 21.1 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 6 | 3174 | 1332 |
| Eli Manning | QB | 2019 | 0.698 | 16.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 8 | 3331 | 1382 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.695 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 11 | 5277 | 2600 |
| John Elway ⏳ 1990 | QB | 1998 | 0.680 | 20.0 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 8 | 4088 | 1806 |
| Dave Krieg ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1998 | 0.670 | 19.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 38 | 8 | 2802 | 1141 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,329.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.663
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 974 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,025. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,682 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,711 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,399 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,399 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,399 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.950 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,329 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.