Clips matched to Arian Smith from public YouTube uploads, grouped by week with the most recent complete week first. Every card opens on YouTube in a new tab, so views and ad revenue stay with the original uploader.
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston washed out | WR | 2012 | 0.988 | 9.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 578 | 523 |
| Frank Darby washed out | WR | 2023 | 0.923 | 0.6 | 1 seasons · ended age 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts washed out | WR | 2016 | 0.987 | 10.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 553 | 507 |
| Jason Moore washed out | WR | 2022 | 0.978 | 0.9 | 1 seasons · ended age 24 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | WR | 2012 | 0.825 | 13.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 37 | 13 | 1774 | 1303 |
| ArDarius Stewart washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.952 | 1.3 | 1 seasons · ended age 24 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis washed out | WR | 2021 | 0.970 | 1.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 58 | 43 |
| Wes Welker | WR | 2015 | 0.737 | 16.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 11 | 1940 | 1529 |
| Jeff Webb washed out | WR | 2008 | 0.977 | 3.7 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 71 | 66 |
| Jehu Chesson washed out | WR | 2019 | 0.920 | 0.4 | 2 seasons · ended age 25 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 143.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_comp_pool_floor
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.919
Comp pool washed-out rate: 80% (16/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 283 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 253. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 143 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 283 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.376 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.433 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(107 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 107 × 0.433) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.891 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 13 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 143 | Drives the player's rank on the Similar NFL Career Paths page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.